Making Better Decisions: A Guide to Smarter Leadership Choices
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Making decisions is a part of everyday life, but it’s especially crucial in leadership. As a leader, every choice you make—whether big or small—impacts your team, your business, and your personal life. In this episode, we explore some of the key takeaways from Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke, and how these principles can help you make better decisions in all aspects of life.
Making Better Decisions
Here are five main takeaways from our conversation about Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke:
1. Embrace Uncertainty and Make Decisions Based on Probabilities
One of the core ideas in Thinking in Bets is that decision-making is about managing uncertainty and probabilities rather than predicting outcomes. In poker, players are constantly assessing the odds based on incomplete information. As a leader, you likely face similar uncertainty in your decisions.
Instead of feeling the pressure to have all the answers, it’s important to embrace uncertainty. Focus on making decisions based on the available information and the probabilities of certain outcomes, rather than being fixated on achieving a specific result. Whether you’re navigating a business strategy, a personal decision, or a team challenge, recognize that uncertainty is a natural part of the process.
Leaders who can make decisions despite uncertainty are better equipped to handle change, remain agile in shifting environments, and avoid the paralysis that often comes from trying to predict the perfect outcome.
When you make a decision, you do it to the best of your ability at the time, accept that you don’t know all the answers, and move forward. — Nathan Freeburg
2. Separate the Decision-Making Process from the Outcome
Another critical point from Duke’s book is that we should separate the decision-making process from the outcome. Too often, leaders judge decisions solely based on the results. But outcomes are not always within our control. Sometimes, even the best decision doesn’t lead to success, and sometimes a poor decision can lead to an unexpected win.
For example, consider the controversial decision by Seattle Seahawks’ coach Pete Carroll during the Super Bowl. With the game on the line, Carroll called for a pass play at the one-yard line, which was intercepted, leading to a loss. Despite the outcome, Carroll later defended the decision, explaining that statistically, it was the best choice. This example underscores the idea that decision-making is a process in itself, and the focus should be on the reasoning and logic behind a decision, not just the result.
In leadership, this means that we should take the time to evaluate our decision-making process, regardless of how things turn out. Was the decision based on solid data and well-reasoned arguments? Did it align with your values? By separating the process from the outcome, leaders can make better decisions and learn more from both their successes and failures.
Sometimes great decisions do not lead to a great outcome. Sometimes poor decisions lead to a great outcome. So, focus on the process, not just the result. — Nathan Freeburg
3. Learn from the Decisions of Others
No leader operates in a vacuum. One of the most valuable ways to improve your own decision-making is to learn from others. This doesn’t mean copying their choices, but rather understanding the context in which their decisions were made and the thought processes behind them.
Whether it’s reading about successful entrepreneurs, discussing challenges with peers, or studying case studies, learning from the decisions of others can help you make more informed choices. Context is key here—what worked for one leader may not work for you, but evaluating the context of their decision and applying it to your own situation can be a game-changer.
Take the example of a business leader deciding to enter a new market or acquire another company. Even if that decision doesn’t work out as planned, understanding the context and process behind that decision can help you learn how to make similar decisions in your own career.
When you learn from the decisions of others, evaluate them in the context of your own situation.— Brian Schubring
4. Overcome the Paralysis of Decision-Making
Often, when faced with a significant decision, we become paralyzed by the uncertainty of the outcome. The fear of making the wrong choice can prevent us from moving forward. However, as Annie Duke argues, it’s essential to take action and make decisions with the best information available at the time.
The key to overcoming decision paralysis is understanding that no decision is perfect, and sometimes, the best decision is simply to make one. This is especially true in leadership, where waiting for the “perfect” decision can cost valuable time and resources. By focusing on making the best decision you can with the information at hand, and being willing to course-correct along the way, you can keep moving forward and learn from the results.
You have to make a decision, even if it’s not the perfect one. You can’t just sit there paralyzed forever. — Nathan Freeburg
5. Set Deadlines for Decisions
While it’s important to embrace uncertainty and not expect perfection, it’s also crucial to set deadlines for making decisions. Without a clear timeline, decisions can drag on indefinitely, causing unnecessary stress and delays. Setting deadlines forces you to take action and move forward, knowing that you can always adjust later if necessary.
Leaders often find themselves faced with multiple decisions in a short period of time. By setting deadlines, you can avoid becoming overwhelmed and ensure that decisions are made in a timely manner. This not only helps with efficiency but also builds confidence in your ability to make decisions under pressure.
Sometimes you need to set a deadline for yourself. Decide by this date and move forward, even if the decision isn’t perfect. — Brian Schubring
Better Decisions in Your Leadership
Decision-making is a skill that every leader must continually refine. By embracing uncertainty, focusing on the decision-making process, and learning from the decisions of others, you can make smarter choices and lead with greater confidence. Remember, it’s not about predicting the future, but about managing uncertainty and making decisions based on the best information you have at the time.
Whether you’re leading a team, making personal choices, or navigating a business challenge, these principles can help you make better, more informed decisions. So, what will you decide to do next? We’d love to hear from you, connect with us here!
Additional Resources:
- Books:
- Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
- The Decision Maker’s Handbook by David Epstein
- The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz
- Podcasts:
- The Leadership Vision Podcast (for more insights on leadership and decision-making)
- The Tim Ferriss Show (interviews with successful leaders and their decision-making processes)
- WorkLife with Adam Grant (focused on organizational psychology and leadership)
- Articles & Tools:
- Harvard Business Review – Decision Making
- The Decision-Making Process – MindTools
- The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking by Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschäppeler
About The Leadership Vision Podcast
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